學(xué)術(shù)講座：Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis' Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective

金融學(xué)院SBF論壇2019年第9講

講座題目：Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis' Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective

時(shí)間：4月25日 12：20-13：30

地點(diǎn)：博學(xué)樓918

主講人：趙波

主講人簡(jiǎn)介：

趙波，北京大學(xué)國家發(fā)展研究院助理教授，博士生導(dǎo)師。本科和碩士畢業(yè)于復(fù)旦大學(xué)，博士畢業(yè)于挪威奧斯陸大學(xué)。主要研究領(lǐng)域?yàn)楹暧^經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，勞動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)。他的研究成果發(fā)表于Review of Economic Dynamics，Economic Theory, Economic Letters等期刊。曾于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)明尼蘇達(dá)研究部、明尼蘇達(dá)大學(xué)和澳大利亞莫納什大學(xué)任訪問學(xué)者。

講座內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介：

We document that the nature of business cycles evolves over the process of development and structural change. In countries with large declining agricultural sectors, aggregate employment is uncorrelated with GDP. During booms, employment in agriculture declines while labor productivity increases in agriculture more than in other sectors. We construct a unified theory of business cycles and structural change consistent with the stylized facts. The focal point of the theory is the simultaneous decline and modernization of agriculture. As capital accumulates, agriculture becomes increasingly capital intensive as modern agriculture crowds out traditional agriculture. Structural change accelerates in booms and slows down in recessions. We estimate the model and show that it accounts well for both the structural transformation and the business cycle fluctuations of China.

本文通過大量數(shù)據(jù)表明商業(yè)周期的性質(zhì)是在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和結(jié)構(gòu)變遷過程中演變的。農(nóng)業(yè)部門占比大的國家，其總就業(yè)與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值相關(guān)性接近于零。在經(jīng)濟(jì)高漲時(shí)期，農(nóng)業(yè)就業(yè)下降，而農(nóng)業(yè)的勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)超過其他部門。我們構(gòu)建了一個(gè)同時(shí)包含商業(yè)周期和結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的理論來解釋這些事實(shí)。這一理論的重點(diǎn)是農(nóng)業(yè)部門的下降和現(xiàn)代化。隨著資本的積累，現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)擠出了傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)，農(nóng)業(yè)變得日益資本密集型。結(jié)構(gòu)變遷在繁榮期加速，在衰退期減緩。我們對(duì)模型進(jìn)行了估計(jì)，結(jié)果表明該模型能夠很好地反映中國經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型和經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)。