學(xué)術(shù)講座：金融穩(wěn)定，增長和宏觀審慎政策。

講座題目：金融穩(wěn)定，增長和宏觀審慎政策。

時間：12月19日12:20-1:20

地點：博學(xué)918

主講人簡介：馬暢，約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)博士候選人。他的研究領(lǐng)域包括國際金融、宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)和宏觀審慎監(jiān)管。他在南開大學(xué)獲得國際經(jīng)濟與貿(mào)易本科學(xué)位，在中國人民大學(xué)和約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)分別獲得金融碩士學(xué)位和經(jīng)濟學(xué)碩士學(xué)位。

英文講座摘要：Many emerging market economies have used macroprudential policy to mitigate the risk of financial crises and the resulting output losses. However, macroprudential policy may reduce economic growth in good times. This paper introduces endogenous growth into a small open economy model with occasionally binding collateral constraints in order to study the impact of macroprudential policy on financial stability and growth. In a calibrated version of the model, I find that optimal macroprudential policy reduces the probability of crisis by two thirds at the cost of lowering average growth by a small amount (0.01 percentage point). Moreover, macroprudential policy can generate welfare gains equivalent to a 0.06 percent permanent increase in annual consumption.

中文講座摘要：許多新興市場經(jīng)濟體利用宏觀審慎政策來減輕金融危機的風(fēng)險和由此產(chǎn)生的產(chǎn)出損失。然而, 宏觀審慎政策可能會在好的時候降低經(jīng)濟增長。本文將內(nèi)生增長引入到一個小國開放經(jīng)濟模型中, 和偶發(fā)性的緊的抵押品約束, 以研究宏觀審慎政策對金融穩(wěn)定和增長的影響。在模型的一個校準(zhǔn)版本中, 我發(fā)現(xiàn)最優(yōu)的宏觀審慎政策將危機的概率降低了三分之二, 代價是降低平均增長的成本 (0.01 百分點)。此外, 宏觀審慎政策可以產(chǎn)生相當(dāng)于每年0.06% 的長期消費增長的福利收益。