學(xué)術(shù)講座：Eclipse, Confucianism and Revolution: An Investigation into Coordination of Rebellions in Qing China

金融學(xué)院SBF論壇2019年第29講

講座題目：Eclipse, Confucianism and Revolution: An Investigation into Coordination of Rebellions in Qing China

時間：2019年10月24日（周四）12:20-13:30

地點：博學(xué)樓925

主講人：苗萌

主講人簡介：苗萌，目前為止中國人民大學(xué)漢青研究院助理教授，他2015年從英國牛津賽義得商學(xué)院畢業(yè)。他目前從事的研究領(lǐng)域主要為公司財務(wù)，量化歷史，他所感興趣的題目包括產(chǎn)權(quán)，破產(chǎn)法，地方債務(wù)，中央地方關(guān)系等。

講座內(nèi)容簡介：Coordination of large-scale action among revolutionaries, a feat necessary to overthrow a despot, is a difficult thing to get right. Historically, there was an ingenious solution. It was to use solar eclipses. These astronomical events were seen by observers over vast stretches of land, and were interpreted by Confucians as a sign of heavenly mandate for action. Auspicious understanding of eclipses was already established popularly in the matter of China’s Keju civil service examinations. We show that in counties where eclipses were observed, there was a higher than usual likelihood that populations would engage in political revolt. In testing, and rejecting, a number of explanations, we suggest that coordinated revolutions were mostly likely a result of accumulated grievances of local populations against the government, that governments in regions that were under more revolutionary pressure were also found to have conceded and implemented more benevolent policies in the short term, and that this revolutionary and conciliatory effect disappears within three years of the eclipse.