講座題目：Overreaction Through Anchoring

講座時間：2023年3月14日（星期二） 中午12:20-13:20

講座方式：博學(xué)樓925

主講人：

CONSTANTIN BURGI博士現(xiàn)任都柏林大學(xué)助理教授。他于美國喬治華盛頓大學(xué)（The George Washington University）獲經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士學(xué)位。CONSTANTIN BURGI博士的研究方向包括宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、貨幣政策以及國際金融，研究成果發(fā)表于Scientometrics、Economic Modelling、Applied Economics Letters、Economics Letters、Empirical Economics等期刊。

講座簡介：

We show that updates to macroeconomic expectations among professional forecasters exhibit an offsetting pattern where increases in current-quarter predictions lead to systematic decreases in three quarter ahead predictions. We further document evidence of individual overreaction at the quarterly frequency and a lack of overreaction at the annual frequency. We explain these facts with a model of annual anchoring in which quarterly predictions must be consistent with annual predictions. We estimate our model to fit survey expectations and show that it provides a unified explanation for our empirical facts. Furthermore, our model yields frequency-specific estimates of information frictions which imply a larger role for inattention at the annual frequency.